High Probability Trade Setups…

“Ray,

We hear all the time that successful traders know when a high probability trade is “setting up”. My question is what is it that you look for as a set up for a trade?”

This was an interesting question, because in trying to answer it, I realized that while I thought I had totally different mental processes going on between day trading and position trading… the ’setups’ I was looking for were essentially the same.

Let me explain…

First off, regardless of the timeframe you’re trading, I think it’s vital to have an idea of what’s going on in other timeframes.

In other words, you need the big picture. So if you’re trading 5 mintue charts, have an idea what’s going on in the 1 hour and daily charts. If you trade the daily charts, know what’s going on in the weekly and monthly charts.

The reason for this is that while I may say that the doji is a great candlestick setup, just trading a doji in isolation could be very dangerous especially if on a higher trading timeframe that doji is running against major opposition.

Secondly know and watch your key support/resistance levels.

When trade I look for where key support/resistance points are, and create various scenarios that may play out. I then watch price and how it reacts around these key levels.

At this point this is where my day trading and position trading approaches begin to differ.

When day trading, many times I expect support/resistance to hold up, and will look to trade with the support/resistance as my stoploss. Basically meaning that (depending on the context of the trade in progress) if price reaches a support level I deem important, I’ll go long, and use the support price level as my bail out point.

While when position trading, I usually choose to not trade with support and resistance, but against it… meaning that I look to trade longer term trends when support and resistance points fail.

Obviously these paint fairly broad generalizations as it is impossible to address every market condition with a general article, but I hope this gives you an idea of why just looking for a setup, in the traditional sense, is just part of the picture.

I know the reader asking the original question was probably looking for a more definitive answer, like, “I look to trade of dojis and falling hammers…” but what you have to realize is that while these trading patterns do help to alert us to potential changes in market sentiment, that used in isolation they only give us one side of the picture. By learning to understand what is going on in price action and the context to which it is occuring, you’ll be less in need of specific setups, and more in tune with the market.

Continued Success!
Ray

P.S. For more info on how I position trade, check out Market-Millions.com.

For more info on how I day trade, check out Day-Trading-Secrets-Revealed.com

*Disclaimer:It should not be assumed that the methods, techniques, or indicators presented in these products will be profitable or that they will not result in losses. Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. Examples presented on these sites are for educational purposes only. These set-ups are not solicitations of any order to buy or sell. The authors, the publisher, and all affiliates assume no responsibility for your trading results. There is a high degree of risk in trading. Don't trade with money you can't afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures or options.

5 Comments »

5 Responses to “High Probability Trade Setups…”

John ~~ wrote a comment...

2nd May, 2007….

Comment: Re: “Set-ups” Identifying…..

What constitute a trade-’set-up’….?

Incredibly… set-ups happen all the time. But there is an ‘array’ of set-up… a smorgasbord of set-ups if you like. But what one sees as a set-up… on a chart… another will totally-miss..!

The key to ’set-up’ for any trader is to use a combination of indicators.. it may be a set of favourite indicators… or it may be some totally-new indicators just learned… or perhaps a mixture of both.

The idea is… armed with these indicators… examine the charts… lots of them… and look for the ‘recurring’ set-ups with these very indicator-combinations.

One biggest thing I learned as a trader.. is…. “HISTORY REPEATS ITSELF”… and that applies to trading-charts too..!!

You are looking for those repeats that are as ‘good-as-gold’ and always keep in-mind… that some will be ‘false-starters’.. but; your next aim in the ’set-up’ game, is to now have out of every ten set-ups …..at least seven winning trades..! Seven or better winning trades that is an important ingredient for trading success and spotting the repeats that comes all the time.

The whole idea here is… that many folks use myriads of set-up combinations or indicators. What you have to do is… ‘play’ (as it were…) and look at the charts intensely for those historical-pattern repeats… and ’spot’ the repeats… and combine a mix of indicators that alerts and confirms to you, that a set-up is transpiring and imminent.

And as a caution…. don’t use too many indicators… keep it simple.. the strategy is to identify… not confuse or complicate.

Rgrds
John ~~
============

Arvind Modi wrote a comment...

You have given very nice idea for differenciating day trading & position trading.But should have given more information about how you decide the KEY resistance & support level.,Your article would have been perfect.I think without your logic of deciding this key S & R levels,the article remains incomplete

[...] is a comment I got for the “High Probability Setup Article“. What follows are some thoughts addressing this [...]

[...] This was part of John’s comment from this post. [...]

Tom H wrote a comment...

I spent this very PM looking at several pages of charting software, only to find some has to do with diagragming, but so much was there simply as filler and money maker with no regard
for the guy/gal starting a career in trading. It simply didn’t start anywhere nor take the poor initiate anywhere. After some 20 years of looking at info, I’m appalled at how bad the training programs really are…surely you can fill this huge gap with something better then presently exists. Even the big name trainers do a marginal job of providing a good “how to” program.
TH

Care to comment?