Archive for July, 2008

How can you lose with 92% winners?

July 31, 2008 6:43 am

Yesterday I was testing a popular automated trading program.

(In case you didn’t know an automated trading program is essentially a trading system that’s been programmed to execute the trades for you.)

After loading it up and running a few tests here’s are some of the results it generated…

92.8% winners
7.14% losers

Wow… that’s great isn’t…

Well don’t get too excited yet…

Average profit: $207.90
Average loss: $4660.16

Hmmm….

That changes the picture (quite) a bit.

I figured I must have made a mistake… so I double checked the instructions and ran it again…

I even gave it the benefit of trading good years when the markets made some solid moves…

The result?

92.0% winners
8.0% losers

Average win: $209.29
Average loss: $1594.15

Almost the same…

That brings me to the point…

A lot of people judge trading systems on how many winning and losing trades it generates… now on the surface that seems to make sense… I mean how can you really lose with 92% winning trades?

But as you can see, if winning trades was *ALL* you were looking at, you miss out on how much you were winning and losing per trade…

In fact who knows if this is why this system was developed this way, to satisfy the need to showcase a high winning ratio.

I’ve tried to hammer this point home in other articles, that wins and profits are not directly tied together… but we’ll take a closer look at it in a future article…

Continued Success!

Ray

Convert my car to ‘burn water’?!?

July 29, 2008 5:59 am

I got an email today from some company promising a way to get my car to “burn water” to DOUBLE MY MILEAGE…

At first I didn’t even open it… but the thought kept popping back into my head…

I mean… I’ve heard of the IDEA of using hydrogen to run a car… but what was this about…

The curiosity was too much I just had to take a look.

Well an hour and a half later I’ve been combing the internet reading reviews… and the one thing that really amazes me is how people are willing to throw logic out the window…

I mean, mechanics, engine designers and physicists EXPLAIN how it’s not possible to extract more energy out of your car by simply pumping some form of hydrogen extracted from water into it – but despite these explanations many people refuse to believe them… it’s amazing.

I poked around further and found out that this product is a BEST SELLER…

It really opened my eyes… that “best selling product” really means “best selling” and not necessarily the “best”…

That got me thinking about the world of trading…

So I did a similar search for some of the best selling trading products and was actually shocked at what I found…

Products I wouldn’t *personally* risk a dime of my own money trading were some of the best selling systems on the markets…

I guess I always associated best seller with best quality… but that ain’t always the case.

How do I KNOW these products aren’t any good?

In some cases I’ve personally tested them… and in others I’ve heard from reliable sources…

Now I’m NOT going to list these products… because while these products may not work out of the box as promised… that doesn’t mean you can’t get ideas and value from them…

In any case you can always post or read reviews at:
http://www.realtradingreviews.com

That way you get feedback from more than just me.

Continued Success!
Ray